A new poll indicates gas prices impacted by the Iran war pose sweeping challenges for the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections.
The Politico poll indicated that many Republicans are considering voting for a different party due to gas prices, which surged following President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran in February because the conflict upended traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Gas prices remain nearly a dollar higher than a year ago, but many voters, including 54% of Trump voters, think prices have risen even more than that, according to the analysis.
Of the 46% of those surveyed who said gas prices will have an impact on their vote, just under 40% said they are considering voting for a different party than they normally would, including 49% of MAGA Republicans and 57% of non-MAGA Republicans. The poll appears to back up an Overton Insights survey released in May, in which 57% of respondents said high gas prices made them less likely to support the Republican Party.
Around 70% of people who voted for the Democratic presidential ticket in 2024 and 54% of Trump voters overestimated the increase in gas prices in their area, according to Politico’s analysis. Roughly one in four Americans believe gas in their local area has risen by $3.00 or more, but no zip code has actually seen that degree of change on average since Trump took office.
Strategists warned the development could be detrimental to Republicans in the upcoming election, while Democratic candidates pounced on the energy debacle to make their case to voters.
Thirteen of the most competitive congressional districts, including nine represented by Republicans, have experienced gas price increases higher than the national average, according to the analysis. Meanwhile, the majority of Trump voters, 59%, blame the president’s war in Iran for the energy fluctuations, along with 63% of Americans overall.
“Three-quarters of the country is confronting higher gas prices and feeling it,” longtime Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson said. “That leaves them… very vulnerable to the economic pain and very vulnerable to the economic argument the Democrats are going to make.”
“It’s the cost of gas when you’re driving to the grocery store, when you’re driving to, you know, see a doctor,” said Randy Villegas, who is seeking to oust Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) in California’s 22nd District. “Or, the cost of gas when driving 7 to 8 hours away to “go get cheaper health care.”
The national average for gas prices is $4.10, as of July 24. That’s down from $4.29 a gallon on June 2. The average price in 2025 was $3.14, before the conflict with Iran. The all-time high for the national average gas price was $5.01 in 2022, according to AAA.
RUBIO: IRAN HAS ‘AGREED TO NEGOTIATE ASPECTS OF THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Republicans are holding out hope that the gas price saga won’t derail the party in November, arguing that voters will be willing to endure the short-term pain of surging gas prices to achieve long-term foreign policy objectives in Iran. They have also pointed to certain polling that paints a better picture of where the party stands.
At the start of June, Democrats held a lead of 7.4 percentage points in generic congressional polling, according to the RealClearPolitics average. Earlier this week, it stood at 4.7 points, the Washington Examiner previously reported.
“If this [war] gets resolved and resolved favorably, if we have a government in Iran that are not Islamists chanting ‘death to America,’ funding terrorists, and trying to kill us, the long-term effect on the cash price of gas would be to bring it down, and I think the American people want the president to do the right thing for the country,” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) said earlier this year. “There are very few threats on the face of the earth that have a greater prospect of potentially killing hundreds of thousands of Americans than an ayatollah who had a nuclear weapon, which is why President Trump has been so clear-eyed.”
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
