Guest Post by Eric Peters
How much could Trump’s stupid, evil – and apparently never-ending – war with Iran (for Israel) cost us? According to Rapidan Energy Group, which forecasts global oil and gas supply/price trends, it could soon be costing Americans $7 per gallon – due to the price of crude oil reaching (possibly surpassing) $200 per barrel.
“Hormuz disruptions will be deeper and more persistent than we previously expected, materially tightening global oil balances through 2027,” says a statement issued by Rapidan. “Expect ongoing military risks to constrain vessel transits through the Strait well into next year, keeping Arab Gulf production below pre-conflict levels through 4Q27.”
Italics added.
Did you get that? Rapidan is predicting much higher oil (and so, gas) prices through the fourth quarter of 2027. As in all year, next year. Probably beginning this year. It does not take a prophet to predict this because it’s already happening. As of July 23 – the date this column was written – the cost of gasoline had already risen about 25 cents per gallon over the course of a little more than a week. It is now – according to AAA – $4.02 per gallon. It is much more in some areas. If the war does not end soon – more precisely, if the Strait isn’t opened soon – it is a near-certainty that it will continue to rise.
The only question at this point is how high can it go?
Rapidan predicts it could go ballistic. The thing about ballistic things, of course, is that after they go up they always come down.
In this case, everything could go down in tandem. People can’t buy what they can’t afford. When that happens at scale, everything goes down.
Does Trump give any thought to the consequences of gasoline at $7 per gallon? Probably not, because gasoline could go up to $20 per gallon and he wouldn’t feel it. None of the creatures responsible for this stupid, evil war for Israel have to worry about feeling it. They have the means of Crassus – combined with the ethics of Crassus. Of course, Crassus didn’t end so well. If Trump read books he might have read about that.
Seven dollar gas would end America as we have known it. It would “break the back” of the world economy, in the word’s of Rapidan’s CEO, Bob McNally. Suburbs would become economically untenable places for most of the people who currently live there to continue living there because most of the people living there have to drive to work and if gasoline goes up to $7 per gallon, it will no longer be economically tenable to continue driving to work. Filling up a typical crossover SUV such as a Toyota RAV4 – which takes about 15 gallons of gas – would cost more than $100. A full-size SUV or truck that takes 22-24 gallons would cost $150-170. Perhaps by itself this could be managed by cutting back on other things but most people have already cut back on most other things.
Rapidan doesn’t mention the elephant in the room – which is diesel fuel. If the price of gas goes up to $7 per gallon, the price of diesel will go up to $10 per gallon and that will make food a luxury for tens of millions of people. Forget about filling the tank. Diesel is the invisible fuel of the American (the world) economy. It is not gasoline that powers the big rigs, the trains – and even the ships – that bring food and the things needed to produce food from Here to There. It is diesel. The opening monologue of the Road Warrior had it wrong. The world didn’t crumble because gazzuline became scarce. Well, it did – in the movie. In reality, it will crumble when diesel becomes scarce (or unaffordable, which amounts to the same thing).
It’s all horrible to contemplate because it’s a nightmare scenario of suffering for billions of people. It not just the American people who will suffer as a result of Trump’s stupid, evil war The entire world is going to suffer. This would be horrible just because it’s horrible – but it is something much worse because it is engineered horribleness.
None of this had to happen. It was made to happen. Trump chose to wage war on Iran when he could have chosen not to. The Iranians had not attacked us. They had annoyed Israel. Somehow, annoying Israel justifies the United States attacking Iran. Well, it justified attacking Iran – to Trump. And why not? It’s not as if his material (or physical) well-being is on the line. It’s ours that is – and for a sociopath or psychopath, that is a matter of indifference. These people not only don’t care about us they don’t have to care about us.
This point is critical to understanding why this stupid, evil war began and why it isn’t ending. The people who started it don’t care about the consequences because there are none for them. Not the kind that are going to befall us, at any rate. They will not starve. They will not lose their homes. They will not even run out of gas – because these creatures will always have access to the things (including the necessities) they take from us or which their stupid, evil actions deny to us.
As the war grinds on, these consequences grow more certain and ominous.
Just not for them.
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[ H/T The Burning Platform ]
How much could Trump’s stupid, evil – and apparently never-ending – war with Iran (for Israel) cost us? According to Rapidan Energy Group, which forecasts global oil and gas supply/price trends, it could soon be costing Americans $7 per gallon – due to the price of crude oil reaching (possibly surpassing) $200 per barrel.
“Hormuz disruptions will be deeper and more persistent than we previously expected, materially tightening global oil balances through 2027,” says a statement issued by Rapidan. “Expect ongoing military risks to constrain vessel transits through the Strait well into next year, keeping Arab Gulf production below pre-conflict levels through 4Q27.”
Italics added.
Did you get that? Rapidan is predicting much higher oil (and so, gas) prices through the fourth quarter of 2027. As in all year, next year. Probably beginning this year. It does not take a prophet to predict this because it’s already happening. As of July 23 – the date this column was written – the cost of gasoline had already risen about 25 cents per gallon over the course of a little more than a week. It is now – according to AAA – $4.02 per gallon. It is much more in some areas. If the war does not end soon – more precisely, if the Strait isn’t opened soon – it is a near-certainty that it will continue to rise.
The only question at this point is how high can it go?
Rapidan predicts it could go ballistic. The thing about ballistic things, of course, is that after they go up they always come down.
In this case, everything could go down in tandem. People can’t buy what they can’t afford. When that happens at scale, everything goes down.
Does Trump give any thought to the consequences of gasoline at $7 per gallon? Probably not, because gasoline could go up to $20 per gallon and he wouldn’t feel it. None of the creatures responsible for this stupid, evil war for Israel have to worry about feeling it. They have the means of Crassus – combined with the ethics of Crassus. Of course, Crassus didn’t end so well. If Trump read books he might have read about that.
Seven dollar gas would end America as we have known it. It would “break the back” of the world economy, in the word’s of Rapidan’s CEO, Bob McNally. Suburbs would become economically untenable places for most of the people who currently live there to continue living there because most of the people living there have to drive to work and if gasoline goes up to $7 per gallon, it will no longer be economically tenable to continue driving to work. Filling up a typical crossover SUV such as a Toyota RAV4 – which takes about 15 gallons of gas – would cost more than $100. A full-size SUV or truck that takes 22-24 gallons would cost $150-170. Perhaps by itself this could be managed by cutting back on other things but most people have already cut back on most other things.
Rapidan doesn’t mention the elephant in the room – which is diesel fuel. If the price of gas goes up to $7 per gallon, the price of diesel will go up to $10 per gallon and that will make food a luxury for tens of millions of people. Forget about filling the tank. Diesel is the invisible fuel of the American (the world) economy. It is not gasoline that powers the big rigs, the trains – and even the ships – that bring food and the things needed to produce food from Here to There. It is diesel. The opening monologue of the Road Warrior had it wrong. The world didn’t crumble because gazzuline became scarce. Well, it did – in the movie. In reality, it will crumble when diesel becomes scarce (or unaffordable, which amounts to the same thing).
It’s all horrible to contemplate because it’s a nightmare scenario of suffering for billions of people. It not just the American people who will suffer as a result of Trump’s stupid, evil war The entire world is going to suffer. This would be horrible just because it’s horrible – but it is something much worse because it is engineered horribleness.
None of this had to happen. It was made to happen. Trump chose to wage war on Iran when he could have chosen not to. The Iranians had not attacked us. They had annoyed Israel. Somehow, annoying Israel justifies the United States attacking Iran. Well, it justified attacking Iran – to Trump. And why not? It’s not as if his material (or physical) well-being is on the line. It’s ours that is – and for a sociopath or psychopath, that is a matter of indifference. These people not only don’t care about us they don’t have to care about us.
This point is critical to understanding why this stupid, evil war began and why it isn’t ending. The people who started it don’t care about the consequences because there are none for them. Not the kind that are going to befall us, at any rate. They will not starve. They will not lose their homes. They will not even run out of gas – because these creatures will always have access to the things (including the necessities) they take from us or which their stupid, evil actions deny to us.
As the war grinds on, these consequences grow more certain and ominous.
Just not for them.
Tweet
Continue reading...
[ H/T The Burning Platform ]
