Republicans are gaining ground in recent generic ballot polling, with the narrowing gap suggesting a likely majority will be decided at the margins, even as Democrats maintain an advantage.
Democrats are favored to reclaim the majority for the first time since 2022, but a slew of new surveys show Republicans with some momentum. The generic ballot does not test specific candidates but asks respondents to select which party they are likely to vote for in an upcoming election.
According to generic ballot polling averages from the RealClear Polling on June 1, Democrats were up 7.4 percentage points, but, as of Wednesday, Democrats hold a 4.7-point lead.
Democrats improved by 4 points on the RealClear average from June 1 to July 21 in 2018. Eight years later, over the same time frame, Republicans have gained nearly 3 points in the summer months.
The Washington Post/Ipsos poll showed Democrats leading the generic ballot, 48%-45%, a 2-point swing from the last version of the poll in April. At this point in 2018, Democrats held a 10-point lead in the Washington Post/Ipsos poll on the generic ballot.
Democrats won 40 seats in 2018, but the 2026 midterm elections are not expected to produce such a wave. Redistricting efforts across the country have reduced the number of competitive seats on the battlefield, and Republicans emerged with a narrow advantage in seats netted through gerrymandering.
A Morning Consult July survey also showed Democrats with a mere 3-point advantage.
“Every poll that’s come out in the last month shows this race tightening, and it’s happening despite pollsters who’ve been undercounting Republicans for a decade,” National Republican Congressional Committee Spokesman Mike Marinella told the Washington Examiner. “With 100 days left, Republicans are on offense and ready to defy history.”
Republicans are facing headwinds heading into November, as the party in power typically loses seats in the midterm elections. President Donald Trump’s war with Iran and affordability concerns also loom over Republicans. Midterm elections are typically referendums on the president, and Trump’s approval rating currently sits at just 36%, according to the Economist.
But the Democratic Party also faces a major popularity problem. The RealClear Polling aggregate has the party more than 17 points underwater in favorability. The party apparatus also has significantly less cash on hand across party committees and super PACs than the GOP.
Still, Democrats aren’t sweating the numbers, at least yet.
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“Comparisons to 2018 miss the most important piece of context: where each cycle started,” a Democratic strategist told the Washington Examiner. “After Trump’s 2016 election, Democrats began with a sizable generic ballot advantage that held through Election Day. This cycle, we started in a deficit. Since then, the generic ballot has moved steadily in Democrats’ direction as voters have reacted to Republican governance and concerns about affordability, healthcare, and the cost of living.”
“The generic will fluctuate — as it always does — but we expect the overall trajectory to continue moving in Democrats’ favor as we get closer to Election Day,” the strategist continued.
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
