The United Kingdom’s new prime minister, Andy Burnham, has appointed his key Cabinet ministers. Unlike in the United States, U.K. Cabinet ministers do not require legislative confirmation, so they enter office immediately. Burnham’s appointments suggest he is likely to take a bolder stance on defense spending but also double down on his predecessor Keir Starmer’s effort to strengthen ties with China.
For the U.S., then, this Cabinet offers both good news and bad news.
The good news comes via Burnham’s selection of John Healey as the new chancellor of the exchequer. Considering that this is a center-left/left Labour Party government, America couldn’t do better than Healey in this key position. The U.K.’s all-powerful version of the U.S. treasury secretary, the chancellor holds authority over budgeting decisions, even amid pressure from the prime minister. And until recently, Healey served as U.K. defense secretary. He resigned in mid-June after protesting that Starmer’s increases to defense spending were “well short” of what was required. The U.K. military needed at least $37 billion in new funding, but Starmer provided a measly $20 billion.
I argued at the time that the survival of the strained U.S.-U.K. “special relationship” would thus depend heavily on Burnham finding more money for defense. It seems highly improbable that Healey would have accepted this new role had Burnham not promised him authority to now find those additional funds. As the Sun’s editor-at-large, Harry Cole, put it, “Healey, who has been locked in a massive battle with the Treasury for two years over defence spending, will now be poacher turned gamekeeper. Solid [guy] who knows exactly what the country needs to defend itself … and can’t see him putting up [gas taxes].”
This is positive news. With additional funding, the U.K. military will be able to assure its position as the U.S. military’s most capable and trusted partner. The woeful condition of the British Navy underlines why new investment is so critical. Equally important, a fully funded military will help associate the U.K. with the defense spending increases of other allies such as Germany. It will also show seriousness about confronting the rising challenges posed by Russia to trans-Atlantic security. This will help consolidate President Donald Trump’s support for NATO and his trust in Burnham as a partner.
It’s not all good news, however.
New Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband is a bad sign in regard to that preeminent threat: the Chinese Communist Party’s pursuit of global hegemony. On the left of the Labour Party, Miliband is notorious for his green energy passion and hatred for fossil fuels. While Burnham has hinted that he will authorize slightly more North Sea drilling, Miliband will have significant influence over foreign policy. The past doesn’t suggest good things will follow. As Labour Party leader in 2013, Miliband led parliament’s rejection of joining the U.S. in striking Bashar Assad’s regime in response to a chemical weapons attack. While President Barack Obama then backed down regardless, Miliband’s action highlighted his opposition to American global leadership.
In contrast, in his most recent role as Starmer’s energy secretary, Miliband worked hard to boost ties with Beijing. But while his motive in addressing climate change might have been pure, Miliband’s engagement with China evinces comfort with Starmer’s broader Beijing strategy. Namely, the strategy of endeavoring to keep China happy in order to secure limited increases in trade. Since entering office in 2024, Labour has reduced the U.K.’s criticism of China’s human rights abuses, its endemic espionage and intellectual property theft, and on numerous other issues. Even the U.K.’s spy chiefs have been forced to cool their criticisms of what they know is the U.K.’s preeminent threat. Miliband will now supervise both the U.K.’s GCHQ and SIS intelligence services, so his influence will be direct here.
China certainly believes it has a useful partner in the new foreign secretary. Following a March meeting between a Chinese vice premier and Miliband, a Chinese readout proudly declared that Miliband had “stated that the current U.K. government sincerely hopes to strengthen engagement with China, is committed to developing a long-term, constructive bilateral relationship, and stands ready to strengthen cooperation with China on energy security and addressing climate change.” The Chinese may well have spun what Miliband actually said. Still, the new foreign secretary’s record suggests that he will adopt a conciliatory tone toward Beijing. Burnham probably wants as much.
IRAN’S BRINKMANSHIP IS COSTING IT INFLUENCE AND OPTIONS
Contrasted with Starmer’s Cabinet, however, Burnham’s government will provoke more positive cables from the U.S. Embassy in London than negative ones. A pro-American realist who understands that strong national defense requires strong investment now controls the purse strings. But the U.S. will have to be wary. Even as its closest ally appears set to reinforce the defensive foundation of the U.S.-U.K. partnership, China will anticipate more British appeasement on the horizon.
As China escalates its confrontation with U.S. treaty defense allies such as the Philippines, this appeasement will pose a growing problem.
Continue reading...
[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
