A poll released over the weekend spells serious trouble for President Joe Biden heading into the 2024 general election.
The poll, published by The New York Times and Siena College, is considered to be the #1 overall poll out of more than several hundred, according to 538’s pollster ratings.
The overwhelming majority of respondents — 62% of men and 68% of women — said that the U.S. was headed in the “wrong direction” under Biden.
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, 48% said that they would vote for former President Donald Trump while only 43% said that they would vote for Biden; 48% said that they believe that Trump will win while only 39% said that they believe Biden will win.
Only 18% said that Biden’s policies helped them personally and 43% said that his policies hurt them personally while 40% said that Trump’s policies helped them personally and only 25% said that Trump’s policies hurt them personally.
Trump led Biden by 13 points with white voters and by 6 points with Latino voters. Biden’s share of the black vote decreased by roughly 20% compared to how he performed in 2020, falling to 66%.
Biden was even performing poorly with young voters, another demographic where Democrats typically excel, as he was only up by 12 points.
Of those who were polled, 44% said that they voted for Biden in 2020 while only 34% said that they voted for Trump — 18% said that they did not vote.
Democrat primary voters were evenly split on whether Biden should be the party’s nominee with 46% saying “yes” and 45% saying “no”.
When asked how they felt about Biden’s job performance, 17% strongly approve, 19% somewhat approve, 14% somewhat disapprove, and 47% strongly disapproved — leading to a -25% net approval rating.
Trump’s net favorability rating was -10% while Biden’s was -21%. Vice President Kamala Harris had a -19% net approval rating.
Biden Campaign Communications Director Michael Tyler responded to the poll in a statement claiming that it was not accurate.
“Polling continues to be at odds with how Americans vote, and consistently overestimates Donald Trump while underestimating President Biden,” he claimed. “Whether it’s in special elections or in the presidential primaries, actual voter behavior tells us a lot more than any poll does and it tells a very clear story: Joe Biden and Democrats continue to outperform while Donald Trump and the party he leads are weak, cash-strapped, and deeply divided. Our campaign is ignoring the noise and running a strong campaign to win – just like we did in 2020.”
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