WHAT HAPPENED: President Donald J. Trump has declared a “great victory” in the Middle East, with Iran committing to “fully” reopen the Strait of Hormuz following a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, where the Israeli military has been attacking Iran’s Hezbollah allies. Trump has also declared that Israel is “PROHIBITED” from carrying out further attacks in Lebanon by the U.S.

DETAIL: The Strait of Hormuz is a key supply route for energy and fertilizer supplies, and its closure by Iran has caused fuel shortages and price rises. While Trump insists its reopening is not tied to the Lebanon ceasefire, he announced on his Truth Social platform that “Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!! Thank you!” Notably, Israel had been much less keen to agree to the Iran ceasefire with Iran than the U.S., pushing for weeks of additional strikes to secure its national objectives.

KEY QUOTE: “This deal is not tied, in any way, to Lebanon, but we will, MAKE LEBANON GREAT AGAIN!” – President Donald J. Trump

IMPACT: The reopening of the strait could stabilize global oil markets and ease economic pressures worldwide, such as a jet fuel crisis poised to cause the cancellation of hundreds of thousands of flights worldwide. Oil and gas prices have already dropped, but the situation remains fragile, with claims that the Lebanon ceasefire is already being violated and international leaders in the United Kingdom and France planning a multinational mission to ensure passage through the strait. President Trump has responded negatively to this belated initiative, writing on social media that he “TOLD THEM TO STAY AWAY, UNLESS THEY JUST WANT TO LOAD UP THEIR SHIPS WITH OIL. [NATO was] useless when needed, a Paper Tiger.”