Jack Ciattarelli, the Trump-backed Republican nominee for governor of New Jersey, is within the margin of error against his Democrat opponent in the longtime blue stronghold, according to a new internal poll conducted by National Research.

According to the poll, Democrat nominee Mikie Sherrill finds herself slightly in the lead with 45 percent of the vote compared to 42 percent for Ciattarelli. The poll, which surveyed 600 likely voters, had a margin of error of four percent.

A sizable number of respondents, 12 percent, indicated that they are still undecided.

For comparison, a National Research survey conducted in June of 2021 found incumbent Democrat Governor Phil Murphy, who is set to be term-limited, leading Ciattarelli by 12 percentage points. Murphy enjoyed a massive polling advantage leading up to Election Day, though the race ended up being razor close despite a massive fundraising advantage for the Democrat incumbent.

Murphy ultimately won by roughly three percentage points after polling averages projected a double-digit victory.

Jack Ciattarelli, Republican nominee for Governor, speaks to the press following the second gubernatorial debate at Rowan University on December 15, 2021

New Jersey shocked election analysts last year when the state experienced one of the widest rightward shifts in the country. Former Vice President Kamala Harris defeated Trump by just under six percentage points in the state, securing 51.8 percent of the vote to Trump’s 45.9 percent.

For comparison, President Biden carried New Jersey with 57.3 percent of the vote in 2020, while just 41.4 percent voted for Trump.

While other early polls have found a double-digit lead for Sherrill, the National Research survey has energized a Republican base that is gearing up for another tightly-contested election. When breaking down the results further, just 33 percent of Garden State residents said the state is on the “right track.”

A majority of respondents, 54 percent, said the state is on the “wrong track,” a worrying sign for Democrats.

New Jersey has not voted for a Republican President since George H.W. Bush in 1988 and has elected just four Republican governors since 1953. The last Republican to serve as governor of New Jersey was Chris Christie, who served two terms after he was first elected in 2009.