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This story is the first in a series of monthly snapshots from the Washington Examiner, titled Midterm Countdown, gauging the state of the 2026 election cycle. Scroll down to the bottom of the story for the latest prediction market odds of who is going to win.

Democrats hold the early advantage in the battle for Congress, buoyed by a favorable political environment, strong fundraising, and a string of recruiting wins.

But beneath the surface, Republicans see a different picture taking shape — one where structural advantages, a favorable Senate map, and late-breaking legal fights over redistricting could still tilt control of Capitol Hill.

The Supreme Court‘s Wednesday ruling watering down the Voting Rights Act’s protection of majority-minority districts could boost the GOP’s redistricting efforts and help them keep control of the House.

With just months to go until the 2026 midterm elections, the contours of the race are coming into focus: Democrats may have the momentum, but Republicans still have a path.

The redistricting wildcard

The Supreme Court’s Voting Rights Act decision has thrown the House map into flux, opening the door for states to revisit congressional boundaries just months before the election.

Republicans are already moving to capitalize. In Louisiana, Gov. Jeff Landry (R-LA) suspended the state’s May 16 primary for House races in preparation for redrawing the congressional map. Louisiana currently has two House seats held by Democrats, the same as Alabama, which is also exploring a redraw of its map following the ruling.

The decision comes on top of a successful mid-decade redistricting push by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) that could net the GOP four House seats in the Sunshine State.

Democrats, although on the back foot after the Supreme Court decision, have pursued their own redistricting opportunities. Recently, Virginia voters approved a referendum allowing the state to redraw its congressional map, a move party strategists believe could yield four new Democratic-leaning seats.

The result is a late-stage, multistate redistricting scramble that could shift the House battlefield even as the broader political environment favors Democrats.

Still, analysts caution the impact may be limited. J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, told the Washington Examiner that “for all the back and forth when it comes to redistricting, it’s going to be more or less a wash.”

“We’re probably going to have less truly competitive seats because of that,” he added. “But I think, like at a top-line level, it’s going to be maybe a seat or two here or there. I’d be surprised if redistricting is the thing that decides the majority.”

Where the GOP sees an opportunity

Even as the broader map takes shape, both parties are quietly optimistic about certain key races.

“Republicans, they have kind of the easier assignment when it comes to the Senate, because basically they just have to win most of the states that Trump won,” Coleman said. “Democrats need a four-seat pickup.”

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The GOP is increasingly bullish on Michigan, where an open-seat race has exposed Democratic divisions while Republicans have coalesced early.

Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), the establishment-backed candidate, has failed to pull away from the pack in an increasingly ugly three-way primary against state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former Wayne County Health Commissioner Abdul El-Sayed.

Republicans, meanwhile, have coalesced around former Rep. Mike Rogers, who came close to winning the seat now held by Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) in 2024.

Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), who ran the Senate GOP campaign arm last cycle, said midterm environments were always difficult but Michigan was a “realistic” pickup given the primary dynamics among Democrats.

“I like our odds in Michigan, and I think the environment is going to be different as we get closer to the election,” he said.

Where Democrats see momentum

Nearly six months out from the November midterm elections, Democrats are feeling more confident about their odds of taking back control of the House as they bank on voter backlash against President Donald Trump’s administration.

Democrats face a tougher battle in retaking the Senate even as several candidates vastly outraise their Republican counterparts. The party is hoping they can flip key Senate races in Maine, Ohio, Alaska, North Carolina, and Texas.

The messy Senate Democratic primary in Maine all but ended on Thursday after Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) announced the end of her candidacy, clearing the way for Graham Platner as the Democratic nominee.

Platner is hoping to defeat Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), which would aid Democrats’ uphill path to retaking the Senate.

But Republican National Committee spokeswoman Kristen Cianci sounded confident that Collins would defeat Platner, who she branded “a Nazi sympathizing self-proclaimed communist with a record of hate-mongering and dishonesty.”

“It’s safe to say we are confident going into Election Day,” Cianci added.

The race is a toss-up, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

Democrats are also banking that former Gov. Roy Cooper will defeat former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley, whom he has outraised and is leading in polls. Democrats are also hoping the controversial Texas Republican Ken Paxton defeats Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in a primary runoff, paving a path for Texas Democrat James Talarico to flip the Senate seat blue.

But political experts are cautious that Texas will flip blue.

“I would even put Alaska ahead of Ohio in terms of a potential Democratic pickup,” said Coleman. “We have both of those as ‘leans Republican’ right now, but they could get more competitive. Depending on how the Texas runoff shakes up next month, that could be a possibility for Democrats, but I just feel like that’s a state where a lot has to go right for them.”

Republicans are beginning to sound the alarm about the Senate, according to a new memo from Americans for Prosperity Action.

“As it stands today, our view is that the Republican Senate majority is at risk,” wrote Emily Seidel, senior adviser, and Nathan Nascimento, executive director, of AFP Action. “But there is still time. The window to act is now.”

What’s defining 2026

Trump Approval — Midterm elections are generally seen as a reflection of the administration in the White House, and Trump’s ratings risk dragging down the GOP.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday found Trump at 34% approval and 64% disapproval — a record low.

Republican-commissioned polling in nine GOP-held House districts is flashing similar warning signs. In multiple seats Trump carried in 2024, his favorability and job approval ratings are now underwater, including in key battlegrounds Wisconsin, Arizona, and Michigan.

The pattern suggests that even where incumbents remain personally popular, there may be limits to how far they can outrun a weakening Trump.

Gas Prices — Rising energy costs are reemerging as a political headache for Republicans, particularly as voters are already frustrated about the cost of living.

This week, oil prices hit $126 a barrel — their highest levels since July 2022, when former President Joe Biden was in office. Average gas prices, meanwhile, have jumped to $4.30 a gallon, according to AAA.

Because gas prices are among the most visible economic indicators for voters, even short-term spikes can quickly shift sentiment — and complicate messaging for the party in power heading into the fall.

If the election were held today

Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville confidently claimed that Democrats will take back both branches of Congress in an interview with the Washington Examiner.

“In the end, there’s no doubt the Democrats win the House back,” Carville said, even with Republicans threatening to draw new congressional maps. “I mean, there’s only so many that they can rejigger.”

Democrats, according to Carville, are “on pace to pick up 40-plus seats.” Carville also boasted that Democrats would retake the upper chamber.

“I don’t think it’s in play. I think they’re going to win the Senate,” said Carville.

Former White House deputy press secretary Harrison Fields dismissed Democratic optimism as over-inflated.

“Democrats are a one-issue party, and that issue is their Trump derangement,” Fields said. “Voters need more than a vendetta against the President to earn their support.”

“The GOP doesn’t have it in the bag, but it is racking up wins in the courts, has a cash advantage, and is up against weak candidates on the Left and a party with no clear vision,” Fields continued. “It’s no slam dunk, but the GOP is in a stronger position than many would have imagined.”

What the prediction markets say

Prediction markets are increasingly viewed as a real-time gauge of political sentiment. Unlike traditional polling, they aggregate real-money bets on political outcomes, often capturing shifts in sentiment quicker than surveys.

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At this stage in the 2026 cycle, Kalshi gives Democrats an 82% chance of retaking the House, while Republicans have a 51% chance of keeping control of the Senate.

Meanwhile, Polymarket is slightly more bullish on Democrats, giving the party an 85% chance of retaking the House and a 51% chance of winning the Senate.