Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com

The UK fertility and birth rate have dropped to an all-time low of just 1.44 children per woman being born. That is a staggering 31 per cent below the bare minimum for maintaining the population.

The problem is so severe that some in the British media have coined the term “baby deserts.”

Earlier this year, the Mail Online published a map with the telling headline: “Britain’s biggest ‘baby deserts’ are revealed amid terrifying threat of ‘underpopulation’: Interactive map shows how many children women have in YOUR area.”

There are more and more articles on this topic which I make no apology for writing about before. It is a vital issue for the future of UK and other countries.

The media coverage comes because the public is increasingly aware of the consequences of low birth rates: closing schools, a shrinking workforce, fewer consumers and fewer consumption, higher taxes, unsustainable pension systems, and more.  Simply put young people are essential for the future prosperity of a country and the negative fall-out of falling birth rates affects every aspect of our lives.

Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the Conservative Party, said on May 4^th 2025, during an interview with the BBC, that more children will help with UK’s ageing population, adding there were “things that we need to do to make sure that we make life comfortable for those people who are starting families.”

This week Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, said he wants to make it easier for people to have children, as he confirmed his party would back more generous tax breaks for married people.

These statements from the two party leaders send the right message. What is additionally needed is an all-party approach to this issue. The UK’s lowest birth rate ever and demography “recession” deserves attention from all the major parties, since human resources are strategically important for the future of the country.

Political leaders and policy makers must understand the depth of the problem and allocate sufficient resources to address the issue, ideally creating a specialised agency or department to address the crisis.

Supplementary and supportive measures need to be introduced, such as affordable housing, day care and pre-school availability, infertility treatments, and lower taxes for babies’ and children’s products.

Labour has not addressed this problem vigorously enough and that needs to change. The party has to develop policies that additionally support children, mothers and families. The UK birth rate crisis is so severe that it deserves an all-party approach because common ground is needed.

Other countries have realised this issue is too important to be left to the ruling party alone. France has a history of an all-party approach towards a higher birth rate, which is has used for decades. That is one of the key reasons why France had one of Europe’s highest fertility rates.  The main pillars of these policies were maintained, regardless of whether the French president was conservative, socialist or liberal.

However, France experienced a drop in the birth rate in the last decade, just like most of the countries in Europe, East Asia, North and South America.  Last year President Macron spoke repeatedly on the importance of this issue, attracting headlines such as “Macron announces plan to address France’s dwindling birth rate.”

All this is a telling example for the UK. President Macron is a centrist, mainstream politician. His party is a leading member of the European liberal movement, and his Government coalition is a big tent that includes the conservatives from the centre right, through liberals, all the way to the left and the socialists.

Moreover, France has 10–15 per cent higher fertility rate then the UK, but still the country’s leadership thinks about the long-term issues and covers the birth rate issue.

The UK has seen maternity wards closed and shrinking schools, yet we are nowhere close to the political consensus and all-party approach that was built in France regarding the falling birth rates.

Another example is Norway with its progressive, left-leaning government.  The GDP per capita is more than US$ 90,000 with generous social programmes, a big territory and low density. Nonetheless Norway’s fertility rate is just 1.40 children per woman, even lower than the UK’s.

That has led the current Norwegian Labour government to appoint a special committee to analyse why the country has fewer children than before.  The expert committee was announced in August 2024 by the Minister for Children and Families, who stated: “I expect that a committee can help us better understand the connection between societal structures, policies and birth rates.”  The committee will publish a report later this year, including measures that can increase birth rates and an assessment of the costs of these measures.

Malta has a left-wing Government led by the Labour Party.  The Maltese Prime Minister, Robert Abela, said on October 21^st, 2024: “We have an aging population with a low birth rate.  Meanwhile, the labour market is constantly crying for more workers.” He added that the low birth rate is “one of Malta’s greatest challenges” and that his Cabinet is preparing incentives for women who have more babies.

Despite the recent economic growth, Malta has the lowest fertility rate in the EU, with only 1.08 children per woman.  Yet, back in 1960 Malta had a 3.6 fertility rate.  In 2012, the fertility rate was 1.42, similar the UK today, before falling to its all-time low at 1.08 children per woman. Malta’s sharp decline in fertility and birth rate provides a warning to the UK that birth-rate numbers can go much lower, with significant consequences.

These examples of what is happening in other countries should offer perspective for the UK.  Demographic decline needs to be addressed, regardless of the political persuasion of the government.

This issue will not go away; on the contrary it is becoming more serious.

We must tackle the “baby deserts” with hope, energy and sound policies.

The children are our future, both for families and the wider country. The time for UK to act is now, with all-party support.

The post Lord Ashcroft: The rise of “baby deserts” – why we need all-party support to promote higher birth rates appeared first on Conservative Home.