A new midterm map in Texas is on the cusp of dashing the hopes of Democrats seeking to regain control of the U.S. House in 2026.

State legislators gathered on Wednesday to release a new map that will add as many as five safely Republican seats to the state’s congressional delegation. The Texas House and Senate are expected to take up the map and vote for its passage, sending the legislation to Gov. Greg Abbott for his signature.

In a sign of how disastrous the outcome will be for Democrats, liberal lawmakers are stoking talks of fleeing the state so that Republicans will not have a necessary quorum to pass the bill. That threat appears to have not materialized yet, but it may with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) arriving in Austin tonight to huddle with state lawmakers.

“This is a moment that requires a forceful on-the-ground response, and that is why I am traveling to Texas to convene with members of the Texas House and Senate delegations as well as our Democratic members representing Texas [in Congress],” Jeffries said in a statement to Politico.

The proposed map adds five new districts that President Donald Trump carried by 10 points or more in 2024, making it virtually impossible for Democrats to win back those seats unless Texas voters’ support for Republicans collapses like never before. That would tilt the delegation to 30 Republicans and eight Democrats, up from 25 and 12, respectively.

Punchbowl reports that U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) would have carried all five new seats during his last election, while Texas Gov. Greg Abbott would have carried four of them.

Quantus Insights, the most accurate pollster of the 2024 election cycle, released its prediction on Wednesday that the new map will result in an even greater House GOP majority, with “safe seats” for the party rising from 212 to 217 if the map becomes law.

Texas State Rep. James Talarico, who has floated a challenge to U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in 2026, is one of the local leaders urging his caucus to flee the state, denying Republicans the quorum they need to pass the redistricting bill. Doing so would incur individual fines of $500 per day and the threat of arrest; however, deep-pocketed donors within the Democratic Party appear ready to eat those costs if needed, sources told the Tribune.

“I honestly think it’s a threat to everyone, not just Democrats,” Talarico told Politico about the GOP’s mid-cycle redistricting push. “They are trying to insulate themselves from the voters.”

Democratic members of Congress in the danger zone appear to be Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) and Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX) of the Rio Grande Valley, Julie Johnson (D-TX) of the Dallas metro area, Greg Casar (D-TX), whose district snakes between Austin and San Antonio, and Lloyd Doggett (D-TX), whose district is anchored by Austin.



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