Conservatives in Wisconsin are seeing signs of optimism as election day turnout numbers surge in key areas—providing a potentially game-changing tailwind for GOP-backed Supreme Court candidate Brad Schimel.

In Suamico, a town in Brown County, the clerk reported a turnout “going gangbusters,” with nearly 3,400 votes cast by 11 a.m. CT—just under 1,300 in-person and over 2,100 early and absentee. That’s already nearly 80% of the total votes cast in the 2023 Supreme Court race, which ended with 4,304 ballots. Current projections suggest the final turnout could hit 6,000—an increase of roughly 40%, according to election analyst Michael Pruser.

And it’s not just Suamico. Clerks in Buffalo and Wood counties are also reporting similarly high levels of turnout, with insiders now estimating a total turnout of around 2.5 million statewide. That would blow past the 1.85 million who voted just two years ago.

The timing couldn’t be better for Schimel. A new poll released Monday showed him pulling into a statistical dead heat with Democrat Judge Susan Crawford. The survey, conducted by Trafalgar Group and InsiderAdvantage, had Crawford at 51% and Schimel at 49%—well within the margin of error.

That makes Tuesday’s in-person turnout crucial for Schimel, who has the backing of heavy hitters like President Trump and Elon Musk. Musk has reportedly pumped over $20 million into the race through various PACs and issue advocacy groups.

Speaking to WISN12 on Monday, Schimel underscored the importance of conservative turnout: “If we get 60% of Trump voters to come back out for this election, in all likelihood that means I win.”

Brad Schimel, 44th Attorney General of Wisconsin

Schimel, who previously served as Wisconsin’s Attorney General and is currently a Waukesha County judge, is running on a platform of judicial restraint. “So much is at stake,” Schimel said. “We have to put the court back in its proper role where it’s not making the law, it’s not going through a political agenda. It is applying the law the way the Legislature writes it.”

Crawford, meanwhile, is backed by a who’s who of Democrat donors, including Barack Obama, Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois, and George Soros. She leads significantly among voters who cast their ballots early—highlighting a key divide between early voting trends and Election Day enthusiasm.

Judge Susan Crawford

“I just think it’s important for voters to understand the truth and to know the facts about what’s happening out there,” said Crawford earlier this week. “This is really unprecedented, to have the richest man in the world weighing into a state Supreme Court race and spend that kind of money. That’s never happened before.”

Everything from Wisconsin’s 1849 abortion law to legislative redistricting hangs in the balance. And with nearly $100 million spent, this race has already become the most expensive judicial election in U.S. history.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) recently stressed the significance of the race, calling Wisconsin’s congressional maps “gerrymandered” and saying they should be revisited “as soon as possible,” while describing Crawford as a “strong Democratic candidate.”

As the ballots tick upward in GOP-leaning regions, the Schimel campaign has reason to be hopeful that Tuesday’s numbers could foreshadow a strong showing.

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