Guest Post by Mike Adams

Here’s what Trump is setting into motion for America, while his remaining low-IQ followers stupidly cheer U.S. oil exports and claim Trump is “winning!”

If this is what winning looks like, we’re living in Idiocracy:

OIL AND ENERGY
– Brent crude oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel and could reach $150-$200 per barrel if closure continues
– Gasoline prices in the US have already risen to nearly $4 per gallon
– Jet fuel prices rising, affecting airline costs and ticket prices
– US Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdown of 172 million barrels as emergency measure
– Risk of permanent damage to Gulf energy infrastructure extending supply disruption by years
– Parts of the world’s largest LNG plant sustained missile damage estimated to take up to five years to repair
– Net daily oil shortfall of 14.5 to 16.5 million barrels per day despite pipeline bypass routes

LUBRICANTS
– Higher prices for industrial lubricants, motor oils, and metalworking fluids
– Shortages of specialty lubricants relying on Gulf-origin sulfonate-based additive packages
– Rising costs for fleet operators, manufacturers, and heavy industry
– Tighter availability of base oil stocks used in domestic lubricant blending

NAPHTHA
– 24% reduction in global seaborne naphtha supply
– Asian petrochemical plants bidding away US-origin naphtha, tightening domestic availability
– Higher feedstock costs for US ethylene and propylene crackers
– Cascading price increases across all naphtha-derived chemicals and materials

SULFUR AND SULFURIC ACID
– Near-total disruption of sulfur supply from Gulf states, which account for roughly 45% of global supply
– Degraded military supply chains due to sulfur shortages affecting the US defense industrial base
– Higher EV battery production costs due to sulfuric acid shortages affecting high-pressure acid leaching of nickel, cobalt, and copper
– Tighter copper and nickel refining as sulfuric acid becomes scarce at processing hubs
– Rising fertilizer prices particularly for MAP (monoammonium phosphate) and DAP (diammonium phosphate) phosphate fertilizers
– Industrial slowdowns in copper belt processing and battery precursor refining
– Higher costs across renewable energy storage manufacturing

HELIUM
– One-third of global helium supply offline due to Qatar’s production disruption
– Helium distributors rationing deliveries as of early April 2026
– Risk of stored liquid helium evaporating in stranded containers after approximately six weeks
– Hospital MRI operations threatened as liquid helium supplies for superconducting magnets tighten
– Semiconductor fabrication plants facing cooling and process gas shortages
– Fiber optic cable manufacturing disrupted due to helium process requirements
– Aerospace and defense sector impacted including rocket propulsion systems
– Rising costs for all helium-dependent electronics and precision manufacturing

POLYMERS, PLASTICS, AND POLYETHYLENE
– 85% of Middle East polyethylene exports transit the strait, driving global shortages and price spikes
– Higher prices for food packaging across all grocery and consumer goods sectors
– Automotive parts costs rising due to polymer and plastic resin supply tightening
– Medical devices affected by shortages of high-grade plastic resins and polymer components
– Construction materials including pipes, insulation, and sheeting facing price increases
– Agriculture films used for mulching, greenhouse covers, and silage becoming more expensive
– Consumer electronics enclosures and housings facing higher input costs
– Monoethylene glycol shortages tightening supply of polyester fibers, packaging, and textiles
– Asian buyers redirecting demand to US polymer suppliers, raising domestic prices
– Methanol supply tightened, raising costs for resins, coatings, adhesives, and fuel blending

FERTILIZERS AND AGRICULTURE
– Urea prices at the New Orleans import hub surged 32% in a single week, from $516 to $683 per metric ton
– Urea prices up 50% globally since the start of the crisis as of late March 2026
– Some US fertilizer prices rose more than 40% in the first month alone
– 30% of globally traded fertilizer normally transits the strait, with no pipeline bypass available
– Russia suspended exports of ammonium nitrate, removing a major alternative supply source
– China blocked phosphate exports, removing 25% of global phosphate supply
– Natural gas prices up as much as 70%, directly raising the cost of producing nitrogen fertilizer
– Higher corn and soy prices as input costs rise across the Midwest farm belt
– Reduced planted acres as farmers cut back on nitrogen-intensive crops due to cost
– Elevated food prices across the supply chain for months to come due to planting season disruption
– Risk of smaller 2026 harvest putting upward pressure on global grain prices
– Food price inflation arriving several months after the initial energy shock, affecting all consumers
– Downstream effects on livestock feed costs, processed food prices, and grocery bills

ALUMINUM AND METALS
– Gulf states account for roughly 20% of global raw aluminum exports and 9% of production
– Rising input costs for US automotive, aerospace, and construction manufacturing
– Over 150,000 tons of aluminum pulled from London Metal Exchange warehouses
– Higher costs cascading into vehicles, aircraft components, and building materials

SEMICONDUCTORS AND ELECTRONICS
– Helium and sulfur shortages constraining chip fabrication processes
– Semiconductor supply tightness raising costs for smartphones, vehicles, washing machines, and data centers
– Risk of helium prices increasing ten-fold or more before meaningfully impacting chip cost to consumers
– East Asian fab operators facing electricity shortages as LNG supply collapses, risking plant closures

FOOD SUPPLY AND CONSUMER PRICES
– US Department of Agriculture projected a 3.1% average food price increase using pre-war data, now likely understated
– Grocery prices expected to rise across multiple categories as fertilizer, energy, and packaging costs compound
– Higher fuel prices feeding into transportation and logistics costs for all food distribution
– Speed and extent of food price pass-through varies by category but all sectors are exposed

MACRO-ECONOMIC AND STRATEGIC
– Crisis described as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market
– Risk of stagflation as inflation rises and economic growth slows simultaneously
– Stock market declines globally and bond market sell-off already underway
– Interest rate policy complicated as central banks weigh supply-side inflation against recession risk
– China and Russia positioned to gain strategic influence over petrochemical and fertilizer supply chains
– If petrochemical plant closures cascade in Asia, China could establish long-term chokepoints over key supply chains
– Port congestion expected as rerouted vessels arrive in clusters, straining US inland logistics
– Shipping insurance rates rising sharply, adding cost to all rerouted cargo
– Empty container shortages tightening US export capacity as shipping lanes are reorganized
– US defense industrial base facing near-total disruption of critical mineral inputs including sulfur