The following article, Democrats’ Problems Continue and Growing, was first published on The Black Sphere.

Let’s open with the punch line: Democrats keep running against Donald Trump; Trump keeps running up the numbers they should actually fear—registrations. The party that chants “protect democracy” forgot the first rule of democratic politics: you can’t win the midterms if you can’t win new voters.

Over the last few cycles, Democrats built a brand around beating one man. Meanwhile, the right quietly built something less theatrical and more lethal: an advantage in the boring, relentless arithmetic of who’s signing up to vote. That’s not vibes or viral clips. That’s names on rolls. The ledger is moving, and it’s moving red.

The irony here is almost malicious: in 2026, Democrats should enjoy the classic midterm edge—president’s party loses seats, rinse, repeat. But the Trump era has a habit of breaking political vending machines built on yesterday’s quarters. 1934, 1998, 2002—rare moments when the president’s party stiff-armed the midterm curse. Republicans don’t need to replicate those years perfectly; they just need Democrats to keep ignoring the registration cliff they’re already tumbling down. (For a clear history of those exceptions and the rule they break, see the American Presidency Project’s midterm seat tracker and analyses of 1998 and 2002.

Now, let’s talk trend lines—because these aren’t mood swings; they’re structural changes Democrats haven’t seen in decades.

Trend Line #1: The registration map is bleeding blue ink

Multiple swing states that report party registration show the same picture: Democratic share down, Republican share up (with a flood of unaffiliateds that isn’t saving the Left).

• Nevada: The media barely whispered it, but this was a political earthquake. For the first time in nearly 20 years, Republicans overtook Democrats in statewide registration. That’s not a tweet; that’s the Secretary of State’s list. It happened in a state Democrats treated like a personal ATM for a decade.

• Pennsylvania: The once-formidable Democratic edge is now the political version of a comb-over—technically there, but fooling no one. Spotlight PA called it the “weakest registration advantage in decades,” and the state’s own books show the margin collapsing since 2020.

• North Carolina: Democrats once dominated. Now the largest group is unaffiliated, Dem share has slid for years, and Republicans keep climbing. Even local outlets are blunt about the trend line: Dem down, GOP up, unaffiliated fastest of all.

• Arizona: Republicans have widened their edge again; the Secretary of State’s monthly count keeps showing the same direction of travel. The “McCain Country is turning purple” storyline was interesting—until the spreadsheet argued back.

These aren’t cherry-picked counties. They’re statewide ledgers in swing states Democrats must carry. If you’re planning a 2026 “blue wave,” it helps if your surfers don’t keep switching to Team Red boards.

Trend Line #2: The new registrants—and a youth reversal Democrats didn’t budget for

For years, Democrats lived off a simple truism: younger voters trend blue. Then the Trump era replaced a truism with a question mark. According to a widely discussed New York Times analysis of state voter files (based on L2 data), Democrats lost ground in all 30 states that track party registration between 2020 and 2024—and new registrations leaned Republican for the first time since 2018. We can’t link the paywalled NYT directly, but pollster G. Elliott Morris summarized the key findings: the national registration tide moved right, and even Pennsylvania’s long-standing D edge shrank to the low five-figures.

And the youth story? It’s messier—and that’s precisely the problem for Democrats. Axios documented that young men in particular shifted hard to the right in 2024; the MAGA media ecosystem didn’t just entertain them, it organized them. The older “Obama-era youth coalition” isn’t gone, but it’s now fighting on a split campus.

If you’re a Democrat, the nightmare combination looks like this: fewer blue registrants, more red registrants, and a youth vote that is no longer a guaranteed margin. Even organizations focused on youth civic participation flagged that 18-year-old registration rates sagged in key states like Arizona and Pennsylvania in 2024—exactly where Democrats can’t afford slippage.

Trend Line #3: “Unaffiliated” is rising—but Democrats aren’t automatically winning them

North Carolina is the nation’s lab rat on unaffiliated voters: the group surged past both parties. Democrats like to assume this is latent blue energy. 2024 and 2025 suggest otherwise. When you combine the registration drift with issue salience—economy and immigration sitting at the top of voters’ to-do list—these non-partisans have been splitting in ways that don’t rescue Democrats.

If your pitch to unaffiliateds is “we’ll stop Trump,” while their priorities are “make groceries affordable and secure the border,” don’t be shocked when park-bench independents keep voting like cul-de-sac Republicans.

The Dem Strategy Problem: Fighting Trump vs. Replacing Voters

Here’s the strategic face-palm: Democrats seem hell-bent on re-litigating Trump—in courtrooms, on cable, on campus—while the voter file moves against them. This is 1998 in reverse. Back then, Republicans over-reached on impeachment and got punished in the midterms—a rare year the president’s party gained House seats. Democrats appear determined to run the same failed play two decades later, except this time they are the scolds and Trump is the foil who gets stronger every time they swing at him.

Meanwhile, Trump’s second term prioritized the two issues most visible to low-information and independent voters—immigration enforcement and election rules—delivering both policy and political optics. You don’t have to like the policies to concede the effect:

• Border crackdown: From Day 1, the administration executed a high-visibility enforcement agenda—declaring a border emergency, directing DHS and DoD actions, and accelerating removals.

• Election integrity optics: The White House rolled out a high-profile executive order on “Preserving and Protecting the Integrity of American Elections,” while states continued tightening ID and mail rules. Whether you think that’s necessary or not, voters who rank “election security” highly noticed.

These moves do two things electorally: (1) they activate issues where Republicans already hold a trust advantage, and (2) they signal competence to casual voters who don’t follow the daily food fight but want someone appearing to do something. Democrats can litigate the morality all the way to a late-night monologue; they’re still losing the registration race that determines who shows up in 2026.

When the “midterm curse” breaks

Yes, the president’s party typically loses midterms. But it’s not a law of physics. It breaks when one side dominates salience, coalition energy, or registrations:

• 1934 (FDR): New Deal momentum plus crisis stewardship led to gains for the president’s party.

• 1998 (Clinton): Voters punished overreach and rallied to the incumbent.

• 2002 (George W. Bush): National security salience put Republicans on offense in the first post-9/11 midterm.

Salience (immigration/economy) currently tilts right; coalition energy (especially among young men and working-class non-college voters) is at least contested; and registrations are bending red. That’s a trifecta that turns “history says…” into “but this year is different.”

The 2026 Path: Republicans don’t need a wave—just the trend lines

Democrats have absolutely no chance to shrink losses. They’re triple-downing on Trump as evil, even as the measurable universe of likely Democratic registrants contracts.

Let’s be painfully practical. Where are the 2026 battlegrounds?

• Nevada just flashed a red registration light for the first time in two decades. That changes every close-race model.

• Pennsylvania’s registration math no longer hands Democrats a cushion. In a midterm with presidential turnout lower, the edge used to save a seat or two. Now it might not even save a pothole.

• North Carolina’s unaffiliated plurality isn’t a blue farm team; it’s a jump ball. If Democrats don’t reset on economy and border, they’ll keep losing the tie-breakers. Arizona never actually turned cobalt; it paused between shades. The rolls tell you which shade is returning.

And then there’s the youth split: Democrats still do better overall with the under-30 crowd, but the margin is narrower—especially among men—than the party’s 2018-2020 muscle memory assumes. That’s not just polling noise; it’s content ecosystems, cultural backlash, and—crucially—registration composition.

Why Democrats keep missing it (and why Republicans shouldn’t)

Parties see what they reward. Democrats reward cable heroes and courtroom drama. Republicans, after 2022’s under performance, quietly started rewarding infrastructure: door files, ballot-chase, and yes—registration. Thankfully, Team Trump won’t rely no the Republicans who have a talent for ripping victory from the jaws of defeat. Trump won’t allow this to happen. He is the single reason Republicans are trending as they are.

If 2026 breaks the midterm “rule” again, it won’t be mystical Trumpian force fields. It will be because:

Democrats are Doomed.

Republicans don’t have to be brilliant to win; they just have to keep being boringly disciplined about the boring things that decide elections. Keep registering. Keep chasing ballots. Keep talking issues that rank #1 and #2 with the voters who decide majorities. And keep a respectful silence while Democrats explain, for the eighth consecutive news cycle, why 2026 is actually a referendum on a man who thrives on referendums.

History says the president’s party loses seats. But the trends say otherwise.

Continue reading Democrats’ Problems Continue and Growing …

[H/T The Black Sphere]