Later today, Kemi Badenoch will present to her shadow cabinet the findings of the ‘Lawfare Commission’ – Lord Wolfson’s review into whether Britain can remain bound by the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).

It feels like a long time coming. The debate dominated the leadership contest; now, a year on, the question returns in more formal guise. Badenoch’s first address to conference in Manchester this Sunday is expected to set out what will be official party policy.

ConservativeHome has been leaked a briefing from the Conservative Research Department (CRD) that makes the direction of travel clear. “Failing to announce that our policy is to leave the ECHR,” it says, “would position the Conservative Party as defending the status quo” – and I understand that Lord Wolfson’s report to Badenoch will declare that the only feasible way to hold key policy positions, from small boats, to veterans or sentencing, is by leaving the convention.

Badenoch’s allies insist a formal decision will only be taken after she has consulted her shadow cabinet. But CCHQ is already preparing the ground for the announcement that a Conservative government would leave the ECHR.

The implications for the party are significant. Badenoch has not hidden her intentions, albeit – as I wrote at the announcement of the Lawfare Commission – to the consternation of some of her MPs: “If we make that decision that we have to leave the ECHR, then that will be a condition of standing for Parliament under the Tory banner.

“I’m afraid anybody who disagrees with that policy cannot and should not stand for Parliament as a Conservative MP.”

In the CRD briefing note sent to some MPs, it sets out how “leaving the ECHR has now become the preferred option within the Conservative Party”, with a recent YouGov survey finding that 54 per cent of Tory voters now favour withdrawal.

Senior voices once sceptical have shifted. The document highlights recent interventions, including former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt labelling the ECHR as “totally outdated”, while former Justice Secretary Alex Chalk admitted it would require “some really fundamental reform”. Although it doesn’t seem that either have actually gone so far as to call to leave.

Former Foreign Secretary Malcolm Rifkind has been more forthright in appealing for Britain to withdraw from the ECHR as the “only way of averting what is becoming a national crisis”.

But it is not just Tory figures that have adjusted their positions. The Prime Minister recently said the government needs to “look again” at the interpretation of some of the ECHR provisions, while the Home Secretary called for reforms to the application of Article 8 in immigration cases. 

Two former Labour Home Secretaries, Jack Straw and David Blunkett, have respectively said that Britain should “decouple” from the ECHR or “temporarily suspend” its application to deport thousands of rejected illegal immigrants.

Badenoch asked Lord Wolfson to apply five key tests to assess the impact of the ECHR and other international humanitarian laws and treaties on a future Tory policy platform.

This includes their effect on tackling the small boats crisis and deporting illegal migrants; ending the prosecution of armed forces veterans over historic allegations, such as in Northern Ireland; putting British citizens first over social housing and public services; ensuring strong prison sentences and stopping disruptive protests; and preventing climate change legislation from impeding economic growth and disruptive infrastructure projects.

ConservativeHome understands that Lord Wolfson has advised that the only way a series of these policy positions are feasible – control of sovereign borders, preventing indefinite pursuit of military veterans, stopping disruptive protests and applying rigorous sentences for serious crimes, as well as placing blanket social housing and benefit restrictions on foreign nationals – is by leaving the ECHR.

When it comes to Badenoch’s final test, referring to climate and infrastructure, Lord Wolfson is understood to have advised that the ECHR is not a current block on policies the party is looking to enact, but flagged that recent case law signals a worrying direction of travel from Strasbourg.

His advice is set to include that leaving the ECHR would not breach the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement, as obligations to respect human rights – with protections already in statute and common law – can be met in other ways. It is a position supported by recent analysis from Professor Richard Ekins KC for Policy Exchange.

The report is expected to explore options for future human rights laws, including a British Bill of Rights. But his assessment is understood to raise risks from that approach, including contention over what rights should be included. If modelled too closely on the text of the ECHR, there is a worry it could leave some kind of residual attachment to convention rights and case law that might risk thwarting the very reasons for diverging from the ECHR.

A Conservative spokesman said: “Lord Wolfson has only shown his final report to a handful of trusted people. So reports of what is in the report are based on early versions or third hand evidence. The final report will be presented to Shadow Cabinet on Friday, at which a final decision will be taken on the ECHR.”

The direction, however, appears to be set. This time last year Badenoch claimed that leaving the ECHR is “not radical enough” – instead pledging to develop “the fullest and most detailed plan to control immigration that any political party has ever proposed”. This is set to mark the beginning of that plan.

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