Israeli intelligence is indicating that Iran may be preparing to launch an attack on Israel from Iraqi territory within the coming days, potentially timed to precede the U.S. presidential election, according to two Israeli sources cited by Axios. The planned assault would likely involve pro-Iranian militias operating out of Iraq, with an arsenal of drones and ballistic missiles reportedly ready for use, underscoring a strategy that may allow Iran to evade direct Israeli retaliation on Iranian soil.

Israel and Iran have been escalating their longstanding conflict in recent weeks, with each side responding to the other’s military actions in a cycle of retaliatory strikes. Launching the attack from Iraq rather than directly from Iran could provide Tehran a measure of strategic cover, helping to minimize the risk of Israeli airstrikes on high-value targets within Iran’s own borders.

According to Israeli sources, Axios reports, the intelligence community believes Iran could initiate the operation swiftly if Tehran chooses to proceed. However, a U.S. official noted that the final decision has not yet been confirmed, leaving room for diplomacy or further intelligence analysis.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Hossein Salami issued a warning last Thursday, declaring that Israel’s recent actions constituted a “mistake” and that Iran’s retaliation would be “different from any scenario” Israel might anticipate. Separately, a senior Iranian source told CNN that Iran’s response is expected to be both “definitive and painful” and could occur before the U.S. election. Mohammad Mohammadi Golpayegani, the chief of staff to Iran’s supreme leader, echoed these sentiments on al-Mayadeen TV, stating that Iran’s response would be “strong” and would make Israel “regret” its actions.

This latest round of tensions follows a highly unusual Israeli attack on Iranian targets last week. In multiple airstrikes, Israel targeted Iranian military infrastructure and air defense systems, marking the first openly acknowledged Israeli assault on Iran, although the strikes did not extend to Iran’s nuclear sites or oil fields. Iranian officials claimed to have repelled the strikes with minimal impact but vowed to retaliate.

Israel’s action was itself a response to an Iranian missile strike against Israel just three weeks earlier, in which Iran reportedly launched 180 missiles that Israel’s air defenses largely intercepted.