2024’s Top Pollster Gives Update On Hotly-Contested Wisconsin Race

With the polls now closed in Wisconsin’s record-shattering Supreme Court election, a leading pollster has outlined two likely scenarios in a race that could reshape the state’s political future.

Quantus Insights, one of 2024’s most accurate forecasting firms, released updated projections that show just how razor-thin the margin could be between conservative Brad Schimel and liberal Susan Crawford.

The seat up for grabs was vacated by liberal Justice Ann Walsh Bradley, who retired after three decades on the bench. Crawford, a Dane County Circuit Court judge, has emerged as the progressive choice, boosted by endorsements from former President Barack Obama and billionaire donor George Soros.

Meanwhile, Schimel—former Attorney General and current Waukesha County judge—has rallied conservatives with backing from none other than Elon Musk, who has poured over $14 million into his campaign. Quantus Insights posted two scenarios on X that show how tight the numbers could get based on turnout and Election Day behavior.

Two Election Day Estimates/Scenarios: Wisconsin
1.) If total turnout hits 2 million (644,000 early + 1,356,000 today), and Schimel wins 53% of Election Day votes (reflecting red-county strength), he’d get 718,680 to Crawford’s 637,320.
Final tally:
• Schimel: 289,800 (early)…
— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) April 1, 2025

If total turnout hits 2 million—comprised of roughly 644,000 early votes and 1.36 million Election Day votes—and Schimel wins 53% of ballots cast today, he would narrowly defeat Crawford. That breakdown gives Schimel 718,680 Election Day votes to Crawford’s 637,320.

Combined with early votes, that would place Schimel at 1,008,480 (50.4%) and Crawford at 991,520 (49.6%)—a margin of just 0.8% or about 17,000 votes. But Quantus also offers a “realistic Crawford win” model.

Brad Schimel, 44th Attorney General of Wisconsin

If Election Day turnout remains the same but splits evenly between the two candidates—driven by higher-than-expected turnout in Democratic strongholds like Milwaukee and Dane County—Crawford would pull ahead decisively.

That version gives both candidates 678,000 votes today. Adding that to the early vote totals gives Crawford 1,032,200 votes (51.6%) to Schimel’s 967,800 (48.4%)—a significant 3.2% win with a 64,400-vote edge.

Judge Susan Crawford

The final result will likely hinge on the balance of urban turnout and rural enthusiasm, with both campaigns turning out record numbers in what has become the most expensive judicial election in U.S. history—topping $98 million in spending.

Observers across the country are watching closely, as the ideological balance of the court hangs in the balance. The new justice could be the deciding vote on issues such as abortion rights, legislative redistricting, and voting access—cases that will echo far beyond Wisconsin’s borders.

With early vote counts favoring Crawford but Election Day returns leaning toward Schimel, Wisconsin could be in for a long night—or a long week—of ballot counting.